Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match. </