Atletico Goianiense will host Juventude on Tuesday in an encounter that will be crucial for both sides as they try to avoid relegation from the Campeonato Brasileiro this season.
The hosts head into the fixture in 15th place, while Juventude are one place lower, with only two points separating themselves and Bahia in the relegation zone.
Atletico Goianiense occupied 10th position after 19 games, but since then their form has dropped off considerably.
In the 14 games since they have managed to win just three matches, which has seen them get dragged into a relegation battle.
Although they head into Tuesday without a win in six games, they can take encouragement from recent fixtures where they have drawn three consecutive games.
On Saturday, they hosted Ceara and went behind courtesy of an effort from Vinicius, but fortunately for Dragao they claimed a point thanks to Joao Paulo‘s equaliser.
If they are to avoid the drop then they need to improve in front of goal, with Sport Recife the only side in the league who have scored fewer goals than Atletico Goianiense, and what is more of a concern for interim boss Eduardo Souza is that Tuesday’s hosts have scored just once in their last six matches.
After earning promotion from Serie B last season, Juventude are attempting to avoid an immediate return to Brazil’s second tier.
They head into Tuesday only two points above the drop zone, but they were encouraged by three successive victories before the weekend’s trip to league leaders Atletico Mineiro.
Unfortunately for the visitors, their hosts ended their winning run, although it did take 72 minutes for Atletico Mineiro to break the deadlock with Hulk scoring twice late on to condemn Juventude to defeat.
The concern for Jair Ventura will be that they have only won twice away from home in the league this term and they have only picked up one victory in their previous nine away trips.
However, Juventude can take confidence from their newfound defensive solidity, conceding only three goals in their last six games.
Atletico Goianiense have been without Wanderson for their last two fixtures due to injury, and it is unlikely that the defender will return for Tuesday.
There could be a place in the starting lineup for Arthur Henrique after the left-back made a substitute appearance on Saturday and he played a pivotal role for his side by assisting Joao Paulo’s equaliser.
Andre Luis returned from suspension to start the game at the weekend, and he is expected to retain his place in the side for the contest in midweek.
Meanwhile, Elton is still missing for Juventude, with the midfielder expected to be out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
Loanees Vitor Mendes and Guilherme Castilho were ineligible to face their parent club on Saturday, but the pair will return to the starting lineup for the Atletico Goianiense encounter.
Michel returned from suspension against Atletico Mineiro, and the right-back will keep his place in the side for Tuesday’s game.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Dudu, Eder, P. Henrique, A. Henrique; Maranhao, Freitas, Paulo; Luis, Janderson, Montenegro
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Michel, Mendes, Forster, Matheus; Jadson, Dawhan, Castilho; Capixaba, Vincios, Bueno
With only a point separating the two sides in the table, this will be a close contest that neither team can afford to lose.
We think with both sides fearful of defeat that the contest will end all square, especially given the fact that seven of Atletico Goianiense’s last 10 home games have ended in draws.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 52.31%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.